US dollar weakens, base metals generally decline, ferrous metals series mostly rise, iron ore gains over 1%, and New York gold futures week line is expected to close higher [SMM midday review]

SMM News on July 4:

Metals Market:

As of the midday close, domestic base metals showed mixed performance, with SHFE copper down 0.69% and SHFE nickel up 0.74%. SHFE aluminum fell 0.17%. SHFE lead and SHFE zinc posted marginal gains, while SHFE tin declined 0.46%.

Additionally, the main continuous futures for casting aluminum fell 0.1%, and alumina main continuous futures dropped 0.07%. Lithium carbonate declined 0.82%, silicon metal fell 0.68%, and polysilicon rose 0.27%.

The ferrous metals series mostly rose, with iron ore up 1.03%, rebar up 0.62%, and HRC up 0.56%. Stainless steel gained 0.55%. For coking coal and coke: coking coal rose 0.24%, while coke fell 0.17%.

In overseas metals markets, as of 11:41, LME metals uniformly declined, with LME copper down 0.28% and LME aluminum down 0.19%. LME nickel fell 0.23%, LME zinc dropped 0.2%, LME tin declined 0.45%, and LME lead fell 0.07%.

Precious metals: As of 11:41, COMEX gold rose 0.01%, with COMEX gold also poised to close higher for the week; COMEX silver fell 0.4%. Domestically, SHFE gold declined 0.46%, while SHFE silver rose 0.43%.

As of the midday close, the most-traded European container shipping futures contract rose 1.54% to 1,911.1 points.

As of 11:41 on July 4, selected midday futures market movements:

》July 4 SMM Metal Spot Prices

Spot and Fundamentals

Copper: Today in Guangdong, spot #1 copper cathode traded at a discount of 10 yuan/mt to a premium of 60 yuan/mt against the front-month contract, with an average premium of 25 yuan/mt - down 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. SX-EW copper was quoted at discounts of 70-50 yuan/mt, averaging a 60 yuan/mt discount - also down 40 yuan/mt from the prior session. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong stood at 80,550 yuan/mt, down 415 yuan/mt day-on-day, while SX-EW copper averaged 80,465 yuan/mt, also down 415 yuan/mt. Spot market: Guangdong inventories have increased for five consecutive days, primarily due to rising arrivals and weak consumption. Inventories are expected to continue growing next week... 》Click for details

Macro Front

Domestic Developments:

[Announcement: State Council Information Office to Hold Policy Briefing on Pilot Results and Replication of China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone's Full Alignment with International High-Standard Economic and Trade Rules] According to China.org.cn, the State Council Information Office will hold a policy briefing at 3:00 PM on July 4, 2025 (Friday). Assistant Minister of Commerce Tang Wenhong, Shanghai Municipal Committee Member and Executive Vice Mayor Wu Wei, and officials from the People's Bank of China and General Administration of Customs will introduce the pilot achievements and replication efforts of China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone's full alignment with international high-standard economic and trade rules, and take questions from reporters.

[NEA Convenes Mid-term Meeting for Wind and Solar Power Resource Survey Pilot Work]To advance the pilot work on wind and solar power resource surveys and ensure high-quality completion of tasks outlined in the Pilot Work Plan for Wind and Solar Power Resource Surveys, the National Energy Administration (NEA) convened a mid-term meeting on the morning of July 2nd. Jinsong Wan, NEA Party Group Member, Deputy Director, and Head of the Pilot Work Group, attended the meeting and delivered a speech. The meeting fully affirmed the achievements of the survey work and deployed next-stage tasks, emphasizing that the wind and solar resource survey pilot work must adhere to the principles of "high positioning, high standards, and high efficiency." It stressed the need to deepen understanding of the importance of resource surveys, maintain quality requirements throughout the entire process, strengthen multi-stakeholder coordination, accelerate work progress, and focus on value extraction from research outcomes. The meeting reviewed and approved the Technical Guidelines for the Pilot Work on Wind and PV Power Resource Surveys and the Notice on Strengthening Data Management for Regional Wind and Solar Resource Monitoring Networks.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted 34 billion yuan worth of 7-day reverse repo operations at an interest rate of 1.4%. With 525.9 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos maturing today, the operation resulted in a net withdrawal of 491.9 billion yuan.

[Sichuan Province Issues Plan to Develop Emerging Industries and Accelerate Future Industries Cultivation]The General Office of the Sichuan Provincial People's Government recently issued the Implementation Plan for Developing Emerging Industries and Accelerating Future Industries Cultivation (2025-2027), clarifying the province's overall objectives, key breakthrough areas, and core tasks. By 2027, the plan aims to achieve clustered development of emerging industries with over 30 nationally influential leading enterprises, and establish five 100-billion-yuan-level industrial clusters along with ten 50-billion-yuan-level clusters. For future industries, it targets breakthrough innovations with over ten high-growth innovative enterprises, major technological achievements, and initial industrialization capabilities. The plan identifies 23 priority areas: 15 emerging sectors including artificial intelligence, robotics, integrated circuits, new displays, biomedicine, nuclear medicine, commercial aerospace, new aviation, low-altitude economy, hydrogen energy, new-type energy storage, laser equipment, additive manufacturing, bio-agriculture, and advanced materials; plus eight future-oriented fields covering 6G, quantum technology, metaverse, frontier biology, brain science and brain-computer interfaces, controllable nuclear fusion, ultra-high-speed rail transit, and deep earth sciences.

►On July 4, the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar in the inter-bank foreign exchange market was set at 7.1535 yuan per US dollar.

US dollar:

As of 11:41, the US dollar index fell by 0.14% to 96.98. The US President Trump's tax cut and spending bill was passed by the US Congress, raising concerns about fiscal issues and weakening the US dollar. According to CCTV News, on the afternoon of July 3 local time, the US House of Representatives held a final vote on President Trump's large-scale tax cut and spending bill, also known as the "big and beautiful" bill. The final vote showed 218 votes in favor and 214 against, allowing the bill to pass the House. It will then be sent to the White House for formal enactment after being signed by US President Trump. The bill plans to cut taxes by $4 trillion and reduce spending by at least $1.5 trillion over the next 10 years. This bill has been controversial for causing federal aid cuts, increasing long-term debt, and cutting taxes for the wealthy and large enterprises. It has been criticized by some as "robbing the poor to enrich the rich" and pushing the US further down the path of fiscal unsustainability. In addition, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, higher than the estimated 110,000, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1%. Robust job growth strengthened the case for the US Fed to maintain stable interest rates.

Other currencies:

On Thursday, Bank of Japan board member Hajime Takada said that the central bank was at a stage where it could pause interest rate hikes, but should resume the rate hike cycle after a period of time. Speaking in Mie Prefecture, Japan, he said that the Bank of Japan was gradually approaching its price target and should maintain its current accommodative policy stance to sustain this momentum. (Financial Link)

Data:

Today, data such as Switzerland's unadjusted unemployment rate for June, Switzerland's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for June, the global leading indicator for turning points in the industrial production cycle for June, Canada's monthly rate of leading indicators for June, and Canada's total reserve assets for June will be released. Notably, the State Council's regular policy briefing will cover the effectiveness of the pilot program in the China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone to fully align with international high-standard economic and trade rules and the related situation of replication and promotion.

On July 4 (Friday), which coincides with the US Independence Day holiday, trading hours in financial markets will be adjusted.

The holiday arrangements for overseas exchanges are as follows (all in Beijing time):　　

》US holiday on July 4, holiday arrangements for overseas exchanges

Crude oil:

Both crude oil futures fell. As of 11:41, US crude oil fell by 0.27% and Brent crude oil fell by 0.41%. Due to the US Independence Day holiday, trading activity was relatively sparse, and oil prices fluctuated rangebound. Four OPEC delegates stated the organization is expected to announce another substantial production increase of 411,000 barrels per day for August in a bid to regain market share. This news capped oil prices.

Barclays said on Thursday it has raised its 2025 Brent crude price forecast by $6 to $72 per barrel and its 2026 outlook by $10 to $70 per barrel, citing improved demand prospects. (Webstock Inc.)

Spot Market OverviewZ39/>•

Downstream enterprises generally maintain bearish outlook on futures markets; spot premiums continue to decline [SMM South China Copper Spot]

•Market remains sluggish with weakening consumption expectations [SMM North China Copper Spot]

•Tsingshan formally acquires Zhangpu equity stake, marking "anti-cut-throat competition" shift in China's stainless steel sector [SMM Analysis]

•[SMM Brief Analysis] Fundamentals remain robust & sentiment improves, driving sharp iron ore price rally

•H2 arrival maintains significant market divergence in germanium sector [SMM Germanium Weekly Review]

Other base metals spot midday reviews will be updated shortly - please refresh for updates~